The United States Dollar is caught in a commodity story. Oil and other commodities have been very low hurting countries that are commodity producing. Canada is one of the largest producers of WTI Crude, it is currently running a trade deficit of $370m CAD, Debt is at 91% of GDP and unemployment rose from 6.5% to 6.6% over the month, Canada is showing modest economic growth of 0.2% over the quarter but all in all it is under pressure. The truth remains, Oil prices are relatively low and Canada is not the only unhappy kid in the room.
Donald Trump has pushed against NAFTA, backed Shale and Coal, this is no doubt causing issues for the Oil price. The Canadians need to see Oil prices higher and this tends to drive the Canadian Dollar. This is however all speculation, in reality the US president is under siege and Canada may not have to act at all, the former FBI director is accusing the president of potentially obstructing justice, collusion and lying. The US Dollar has started to fill the impact as money flows into bonds and general safety. This may be perfect timing for OPEC and other Oil producers to strike a blow and push prices up.
The Canadian Dollar is showing signs of recovery, with momentum building. No matter what we say the figures show that if Oil prices can’t recover to at least $50 a barrel most countries will be staring into the abyss, especially Canada.